20 Oct, 2020 – Provocative and intimidatory military moves have raised the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait to levels not seen in more than 20 years. Tensions have peaked with news of American proposals to sell more advanced weaponry to Taiwan, and of Beijing upgrading missile bases on its southeast coast to prepare for a possible invasion.
US President Donald Trump’s latest request for congressional approval of arms sales, sent in the heat of an election campaign, is clearly provocative, coming on top of a hardened American stance on China and support for Taiwan and its independence-leaning president, Tsai Ing-wen. Congress needs to consider it very carefully before adding to the tensions. The request followed a visit to Taiwan by US health secretary Alex Azar, the highest-ranking official to visit Taiwan in 41 years, which Beijing said violated its core interests under the one-China principle. Beijing considers Taiwan to be a breakaway province to be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary.
Analysts see China’s military preparations, including land drills and fighter and bomber missions over the Taiwan Strait, more as an attempt to step up pressure through intimidation, short of provoking physical conflict. But the risks should not be discounted lest miscalculation leads to a shooting war.
In that respect, unusually strong language in a recent commentary in Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily, invoking the phrase “don’t say we didn’t warn you”, serves as a reminder. Historically it is a severe warning issued before military operations including, more recently, against Indian and Vietnamese troops in 1962 and 1978, respectively.
In this case the commentary was targeting a big rise in the number of Taiwanese intelligence agents active on the mainland, but was aimed at a much wider audience.
Trump has submitted to Congress several new proposals for the sale of advanced weapons to Taiwan, including mainly missile and rocket systems. According to a military source, Beijing’s upgrading of southeastern missile bases includes deployment of its most advanced weapon, the DF-17 hypersonic missile.
The US has long recognised that there is one China and that Taiwan is part of it. The strategic ambiguity of a defence commitment to the self-ruled island in the Taiwan Relations Act has helped maintain peace across the strait.
There are growing calls from policy hawks in the US for a shift to a more explicit defence commitment. With Trump trailing in the opinion polls just two weeks before the election, this is the worst time for Congress to encourage them by rubber-stamping his arms request without properly debating the risk to regional stability that strategic ambiguity helps to underpin.
Source : South China Morning Post
